One Stop Market

Don’t believe me that this may very well be the most boring article on global economics you may ever read?  Then read on…

The United States of America which is often heralded as the economic heart and soul of the world currently boasts a 70% debt-to-GDP ratio, which would effectively disqualify any family in the US for any kind of loan whatsoever (even with Freddie Mac or Fannie Mae and Barack to back them).  Turkey now boasts a debt-to-GDP ratio of as low as 40% which compares gorgeously to their previous 80% only a few years ago.  So they’re growing phenominally and came off of the IMF support and oversight relatively recently with gusto.  Just like a booming mutual fund they’ve diversified their exports to bring stability to their growth and cushion to their economic falls and valleys (which always happen to every economy as time moves forward).  They’ve pulled together their banking system and have attracted $20 billion a year in foreign investments.  In summary, they’re looking hot. 

Unfortunately, nobody’s looking hot anymore and many investors are turning to material things to invest in like wine or collectibles (McCain and Obama action figures perhaps, but a Palin action figure will be worth the most in a couple of years no matter what happens tomorrow night).  Moreover, historically Turkey has needed strong support from the outside in order to keep going on an upward climb and without the IMF to lend a hand, they are now on their own in the most economically uncertain time in decades.  What will be their fate?  What will they do? 

In the short term, they’ll need to find an anchor but politics in Turkey have always been painfully slow and inefficient and have taken a large toll on the economy as a result.  In short, they need to change and rally to the more modern quick way of doing things and ultimately they need to become more capitalistic and democratic — every Western economist’s view.

But they won’t, so they’ll need to find an anchor.  Anyone got any anchors for Turkey?

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